Investing for the Long-Term: Productivity, Capital Markets Expectations, and Portfolio Management (Ended)
In his 2016 classic The Rise and Fall of American Growth, Northwestern University Economist Robert Gordon enumerates the tremendous innovations and corresponding productivity gains of the period from 1870 to 1970 - he also argues that the feat will never be repeated. In the opposing camp is University of Illinois at Chicago Professor Emerita Deidre McCloskey, author of Bourgeois Equality. She argues that economists have been predicting the demise of growth for centuries, and that their predictions will not come to pass this time either. A second panel of CIOs and investment strategists from some of the world's most influential investment firms will try to make sense of those two opposing world views and what they mean for capital markets expectations, asset allocations, and portfolio management strategies.
- Provide an overview of the productivity gains of the previous century and articulate why they might not be repeatable
- Provide an overview of the techno-optimist school and why additional epochs of extraordinary productivity gains are possible
- Distinguish between micro and macro productivity cycles and articulate the possibilities for short-run productivity gains
- Provide an overview on how the productivity outlook translates into capital markets expectations for institutional and individual investors
Panel 1: Productivity Origins
An overview on the origins of the tremendous productivity gains of the past century, followed by the potential for a fourth industrial revolution and its possible effects on productivity, and finally a discussion on short-run possibilities for productivity gains
Michele Gambera, CFA: Head of Quantitative Analysis, UBS
Robert Gordon: Economist, Northwestern University
Deirdre Nansen McCloskey: Emerita Professor, University of Illinois at Chicago
Panel 2: Long Term Capital Market Expectations and Political Realities
Discussion on the effect of different productivity scenarios on medium and long-run capital markets expectations for institutional and individual investors, as well as portfolio management strategies to position investors for different productivity outcomes.
Michele Gambera, CFA: Head of Quantitative Analysis, UBS
Bob Browne, CFA: Executive Vice President and Chief Investment Officer, Northern Trust
Rick Rieder: Chief Investment Officer, Global Fixed Income, BlackRock
Francisco Torralba, CFA: Senior Economist, Morningstar Investment Management LLC
Members - $45 or FREE with Function Ticket
Student Members - $10
Non-Members - $65
(member pricing underwritten by CFA Society Chicago)
*Limited sponsorships available, please contact Kim Augustyn at firstname.lastname@example.org.
CFA Institute Qualified Activity: Eligible for 2.5 credit hours
Attire: Business Casual
Menu: Hors d'oeuvres and refreshments
3:00 pm - 3:30 pm: Registration & Networking
3:30 pm - 4:45 pm: Panel 1 and Q&A
4:45 pm - 5:00 pm: Break
5:00 pm - 6:15 pm: Panel 2 and Q&A
6:15 pm - 6:30 pm: Informal Networking
Hosted by: Education Advisory Group
Michele Gambera is head of Quantitative Analysis. In this role he leads the team developing and maintaining quantitative models for the portfolio management teams in the Investment Solutions team, focusing on the needs of sophisticated institutional clients. Gambera joined UBS Asset Management in 2010 from Ibbotson Associates, Morningstar's asset allocation consultancy, where he had been senior research consultant and chief economist since 2006. In his more than nine years at Morningstar, he was also a senior quantitative analyst and then chief economist for Morningstar Associates LLC. Prior to joining Morningstar, he worked for the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago for two years as an economist in the Supervision and Regulation division. Alongside his extensive economic and quantitative analysis experience, Gambera has a strong academic background and has held various teaching roles, most recently on the Master of Quantitative Finance program at University of Illinois. He is often quoted by the press including the Wall Street Journal and the New York Times. He is a member of the Chicago Quantitative Alliance and the CFA Society Chicago.
Bob Browne, CFA is an Executive Vice President and Chief Investment Officer for Northern Trust. He is a member of Northern Trust's Operating Group and Management Group. He is also co-portfolio manager of the Northern Global Tactical Asset Allocation Fund. Browne chairs the firm's Investment Policy Committee, which sets investment policy for all Northern Trust groups in all asset classes. He is responsible for the investment group which manages multiple investment strategies including fixed income, active equity and passive investments. Browne joined Northern Trust in January 2009 and has more than 25 years of investment experience.
From 2004 until 2009, Browne worked for ING Investment Management and was the firm's Chief Investment Officer for Fixed Income and Proprietary Investments. In this capacity, he oversaw $120 billion in assets under management across retail and institutional clients, as well as the firm's own insurance assets. From 2002 to 2004, Browne was founder and Managing Partner of Picador Capital, an alternative investment firm. From 1999 to 2001, he was Co-Head of Americas Fixed Income for Merrill Lynch Investments and he also worked in the firm's London office from 1997 to 1999 as a senior portfolio manager. Browne spent the first eight years of his career, from 1989 until 1997, at JP Morgan Investment working as a global fixed income and currency portfolio manager in the firm's Tokyo and London offices. Browne holds a B.A. with a major in economics from the College of the Holy Cross. He also has a Masters in international business studies from the University of South Carolina. Browne is a holder of the right to use the Chartered Financial Analyst® designation.
Robert Gordon is the Stanley G. Harris professor in the Social Sciences and professor of economics at Northwestern University, a Fellow of the Econometric Society and the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, and a Distinguished Fellow of the American Economic Association. He is a research associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research and a member of the NBER's Business Cycle Dating Committee, a Research Fellow of the Centre for Economic Policy Research (London) and the Observatoire Français des Conjunctures Economiques (OFCE, Paris), and an economic adviser to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
One of the world's most influential economists, Gordon has attracted worldwide attention from academics, print media, and the blogosphere by his controversial analysis predicting that future economic growth in the U. S. will be a mere fraction of its historic rate. He was selected in 2013 as one of Bloomberg's Top 10 Most Influential Thinkers and more recently for the Politico 50, those shaping the political debate in 2016.
In his acclaimed and best-selling 2016 book, The Rise and fall of American Growth, Gordon argues that the true driver of economic growth over the last century was a series of one-time inventions whose impact has come and passed. Electricity, internal combustion engine, running water, indoor toilets, communications, entertainment, chemicals, petroleum - these created a wave of growth unmatched in human history. But they have had their effect: they have created all the U.S. growth they ever will. And the current wave of online and mobile innovations, by contrast, will never create the same sort of boom in growth that those more fundamental industrial innovations did. The Rise and fall of American Growth has been shortlisted for the FT/ McKinsey Best Business Book of 2016.
What's more, the U.S. is facing six devastating factors that will slow any growth that could come from new innovations: demography, education, inequality, globalization, energy/environment, and debt. Between the loss of life-changing innovation and the drag of these six "headwinds", U.S. growth could fall below 0.5 percent per year for decades. This new research joins his earlier studies showing that conventional data greatly understate the welfare of Europe relative to the U.S.; why European productivity growth has lagged that of the U.S. since 1995; why U.S. income inequality has widened since 1975; and why unemployment increased so much relative to the behavior of output in the 2008-09 U.S. recession.
Gordon's books include Macroeconomics, twelfth edition, The Measurement of Durable Goods Prices, The American Business Cycle, and The Economics of New Goods. His book of collected essays is Productivity Growth, Inflation, and Unemployment.
Deirdre Nansen McCloskey, Emerita Professor at the University of Illinois at Chicago, has for fifty years taught economics, history, literature, writing, philosophy, and communications; 12 years at the University of Chicago in its glory days, 19 years at Iowa, and visiting appointments worldwide. Her latest of seventeen books, an optimistic note in the chorus of the-sky-is-falling, Bourgeois Equality: How Ideas, Not Capital or Institutions, Enriched the World (2016), has been well received. It is the third of a trilogy: The Bourgeois Virtues: Ethics for an Age of Commerce (2006), Bourgeois Dignity: Why Economics Can't Explain the Modern World (2010), and finally Equality, all published by the University of Chicago Press. She has written for among others Reason magazine, the Financial Times, the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, the (London) Times Higher Education Supplement, and The New Republic.
Rick Rieder, Managing Director, is BlackRock's chief investment officer of Global Fixed Income, and co-head of BlackRock's Global Fixed Income platform, a member of BlackRock's Global Operating Committee and chairman of the firm-wide BlackRock Investment Council. Before joining BlackRock in 2009, Rieder was president and chief executive officer of R3 Capital Partners. From 1987 to 2008, Mr. Rieder was with Lehman Brothers, most recently as head of the firm's Global Principal Strategies team, a global proprietary investment platform. He served as vice chairman and member of the Borrowing Committee for the U.S. Treasury and is currently a member of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Investment Advisory Committee on Financial Markets.
Mr. Rieder currently serves on Alphabet's Investment Advisory Committee and the UBS Research Advisory Board. He was awarded the Global Unconstrained Fixed Income Manager of the Year for 2015 by Institutional Investor, was nominated for Fixed Income Manager of the Year by Institutional Investor for 2014 and was inducted into the Fixed Income Analysts Society Fixed Income Hall of Fame in 2013.
Rieder is founder and chairman of the business school's BBA investment fund and community financial literacy program. He serves as chairman of the Board of North Star Academy's eleven Charter Schools in Newark, New Jersey and is the founder and chairman of the Board of Graduation Generation Public School Collaboration in Atlanta. He is a Trustee for the US Olympic Committee, and is on the International Advisory Council and Board of Advisors for the Hospital for Special Surgery. He serves on the National Leadership Council of the Communities in Schools Educational Foundation and on the board of Big Brothers/Big Sisters of Newark and Essex County. Rieder was honored at the Choose Success Awards ceremony in Atlanta in 2015 for his dedication to public education in Atlanta through CIS and Graduation Generation. Rieder earned a BBA degree in Finance from Emory University in 1983 and an MBA degree from The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania in 1987. He is a member of the board of Emory University, Emory's Business School, and the University's Investment Committee and is the Vice Chairman of the Finance Committee.
Francisco Torralba, CFA, is the senior economist at Morningstar Investment Management LLC. Francisco joined Morningstar in June of 2010. In his role as economist he tracks economic trends, prepares reports on the state of the economy, writes research papers and commentaries, delivers presentations to clients, and participates in the tactical asset allocation committee. Torralba holds a Ph.D. degree in economics from the University of Chicago and a bachelor's degree in economics from Universitat Pompeu Fabra in Barcelona, Spain. He earned the CFA designation in August 2013. Prior to joining Morningstar Torralba held positions as a credit analyst of municipal bonds for Nuveen in Chicago, and as financial auditor for KPMG in Spain.
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